What Will Be The Biggest Movies Of 2023? | TheReviewGeek Predicts

What will be the biggest movies of 2023?

It’s no secret that Hollywood had a disastrous year in 2022. With Steven Spielberg recently telling Tom Cruise that he single-handedly saved the industry with Top Gun: Maverick, it’s hard not agree with him. The domestic box office takings for 2022 were really poor; the worst year since 1998 (source).

While one could argue COVID and lockdowns stifled the industry, a mixture of poor movies, increasingly preachy themes and a growing appetite for watching films and shows in the comfort of one’s home combine to make this a tricky time for the movie industry. Can Hollywood navigate this and come out on top once more?

Before we dive into this article, for those unaware, the budget of a movie is only one part of an equation around estimating if a film will be profitable or not. With distribution costs, marketing and any special promotions (it costs around $7 million to air a 30 second ad at the Superbowl) to take into consideration, the general rule of thumb here is to take the budget of a film and double it. Any profit is then derived from worldwide box office takings minus this aforementioned cost.

In our latest article we get our geek on, breaking down the numbers and trying to predict which will be the heavy hitters at the box office in 2023 – and which will bomb. Our predictions are based on worldwide box office numbers.

As always, if you have alternate opinions to us or completely disagree with our predictions, do let us know in the comments below as we love hearing from you!

---

Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Budget: $200 million

Marvel’s Phase Five kicks off with Ant Man’s third movie, featuring the whole family and an inspired performance by Jonathan Majors as Kang The Conqueror. The film raked in $104 million domestically (alongside double that internationally) during the opening weekend which is actually down considerably compared to both Wakanda Forever and Thor: Love and Thunder.

Generally Marvel have been tracking at around a 60/70% drop between weekends 1 and 2 so it’s not outside the realm of possibility to think this one will be a bit of a slow burn at the global box office. It’ll make money but it will be a far more subdued effort than we’re perhaps used to seeing from recent Marvel projects.

Our Prediction: $600-700 million worldwide box office

Actual Box Office: $474.5 million worldwide

---

Creed III

Budget: Approx. $65 million

Michael B. Jordan now holds the keys to the Rocky kingdom, and the third film in this trilogy promises to be another enjoyable boxing flick. However, it’s not a particularly big hitting film at the box office, judging by previous entries.

2015’s Creed had a domestic opening of around $30 million, eventually closing with $173 million worldwide. Creed II fared better, with the teasing promise of Ivan Drago’s son hitting the ring helping to bring people into cinemas. That film ended with $214 million box office takings.

Our Prediction: $300 million worldwide box office

Actual Box Office: $272.2 million worldwide

---

Scream VI

Budget: $35 million

Speaking of dark horses, no one expected Scream V (titled ‘Scream’) to do as well as it did when it dropped in theatres. Off a budget of around $25 million, last year’s Scream went on to rake in $140 million at the box office. That’s a pretty good return and Scream VI will probably do very similar numbers. This is a reliable horror franchise but it seems unlikely to move the needle too much.

Our Prediction: $150-200 million worldwide

Actual Box Office: $168.9 million worldwide

---

Shazam: Fury of the Gods

Budget: $125 million

The DC Universe is about to be rebooted completed by James Gunn, essentially rendering anything that comes out from the studio this year (with the exception of The Flash) moot. This will likely translate to audience apathy, not to mention the fact that this is another superhero film on a calendar chock full of them. There are bound to be some casualties along the way.

If Black Adam is anything to go by, this could be another costly DC misfire ans may even fail to make back its initial $100 million budget. Of course, as per usual you need to double that number to account for marketing, promotion and distribution rights.

Our Prediction: $200 million worldwide

Actual Box Office: $133 million worldwide

---

John Wick: Chapter 4

Budget: Approx. $90 million

John Wick is a tricky one to track. Every film in the franchise has consistently outperformed the last, with Chapter 3 earning $328 million at the box office off the back of a $75 million budget. That’s a great return, and with Chapter 4 on course to being the longest film in the entire franchise, not to mention being fronted by the ever-lovable Keanu Reeves, it could be a big hitter for Lionsgate.

Our Prediction: $500-600 million worldwide

Actual Box Office: $427 million worldwide

---

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Budget: Approx. $150 million

Dungeons and Dragons is either going to be so good it’s unmissable, or so bad that it’ll turn people away in their droves. There doesn’t seem to be a happy medium for this one but the release date  – coming right at the end of March with virtually no competition around it – could actually help its chances at the box office.

It certainly won’t move the needle, nor is it unlikely to be the year’s highest grossing film but it may just about break even. However, we’re predicting it’ll just about make back its budget and promotional costs regardless.

Our Prediction: Either $300 million or $150 million tops worldwide.

Actual Box Office: $208 million worldwide

---

Super Mario Bros

Budget: Approx. $80 million

Video game adaptations are all the rage right now and what bigger game IP is there other than Super Mario Bros? The combination of this, plus the fact the animated aspect will be more palatable for families and kids, could see our first big animated heavy-hitter of the year. On the flip side, Pokemon is arguably a much more lucrative IP than Mario and Detective Pikachu made around $471 million at the box office.

Our Prediction: $700-800 million worldwide.

---

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Budget: Approx. $250 million

James Gunn’s final Marvel project before picking up the DC reigns, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is likely to be one of the big hitters this year. The two previous Guardians films have been great fun and one of the few IPs where the silly Marvel humour, marrying drama and comedy together, feels like a natural hit without compromising on either tone.

This is likely to be the final appearance for some of our cast too, while the continued saga of Kang the Conqueror could see the new Phase 5 big-bad show up here too. Both previous Guardians movies made $770 million and $863 million at the box office, which is another good indicator of this being a big hitter for Marvel.

Despite the aforementioned superhero fatigue, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has the opportunity to really bring back the Marvel magic and end the trilogy on a high

Our Prediction: $900 million-$1.1 billion worldwide.

---

Fast X

Budget: $340 million

The final Fast and Furious film brings this massively successful franchise to a bombastic close, and it’s likely to follow that with a nitrous injection of money at the box office too. Aside from the fact this film missed a trick by not actually being named “Fast X Your Seatbelts”, Vin Diesel’s swansong could be a heavy hitter at theatres.

One of the more audacious predictions on the list for sure but we think Fast X has just enough speed to zoom past its competitors and make just over a billion at the box office. A simple, high-octane and emotionally charged conclusion.

Our Prediction: $900 million-$1.2 billion worldwide.

---

The Little Mermaid

Budget: $200 million

The Little Mermaid came out back in 1989 and since then, Disney have been on a crusade to remake all its animated classics for a modern audience. They’ve had a pretty good track record of it too, at least when it comes to money earned at the box office. Jungle Book made $967 million worldwide, Lion King $1.6 billion and Beauty and the Beast $1.2 billion.

However, more recent adaptations – including the soulless Pinocchio, villain prequel Cruella and Dumbo haven’t done well so this one could go either way. If The Little Mermaid stays true to the original, this could be another good, solid hit for Disney but if it changes and tinkers important story points, it could flop. Either way, it does seem unlikely to hit the highs that its predecessors have achieved.

Our Prediction: $450-500 million worldwide.

---

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

Budget: $90 million

Spider-Man is a big name when it comes to comic books, so it’s perhaps no surprise to find Spider-Man featuring again this year, especially off the back of No Way Home’s mammoth success. Similarly, nobody expected Spider-Verse to do as well as it did, and off the back of a $90 million budget, the filmed raked in $384 million worldwide.

Across The Spider-Verse has a similar budget but promises much more bombastic action and plenty more Spider-Men (and women!) joining the fight this time around.

Our Prediction: $500 million worldwide.

---

Elemental

Budget: $180 million

Pixar’s latest movie could be another casualty in the Summer shuffle. Not only does it come out the same day as The Flash, it’s also got Across The Spider-Verse to compete against, not to mention several other smaller animated titles coming out around the same time.

Directed by Peter Sohn, who helmed The Good Dinosaur (Pixar’s first box office bomb) and written by first-time writer Brenda Hsueh, this could be another Pixar bomb for the summer if the story doesn’t knock it out the park.

June is a stacked month and there are going to be some big bombs this month. The chances are, after Strange World’s box office disaster and Lightyear turning people away, this one could follow suit.

Our Prediction: $300 million worldwide.

---

The Flash

Budget: $200 million

The Flash is almost certainly going to do better internationally than domestically. Ezra Miller isn’t exactly a welcome name in the US right now, and they’ve been charged with numerous different felons, including robbery, disorderly conduct, physical assault and several other charges. That alone is likely to be a sour point for this film.

James Gunn’s recent comments about The Flash leaning into the “divergent” storyline, with his new DC film slate taking over in 2025, could be enough to bring people back into the theatre though, while Michael Keaton’s Batman appearance may just be the dangling carrot that swings things in this film’s favour.

There’s no two ways about it, The Flash is either going to be wildly successful or a complete box office bomb.

Our Prediction: Either $200 million or $600 million worldwide.

---

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Budget: $294.7 million

If done correctly, Indiana Jones could be another surprise addition to the film roster for 2023, akin to Top Gun: Maverick’s success. The chances of this reaching the same lofty heights as Cruise’s high-flyer? Very unlikely.

The first trailer hasn’t exactly gone down well with audience and Lucasfilm doesn’t have a great track record right now when it comes to adaptations. Not only that, but the film has been delayed and has reportedly undergone a lot of reshoots. On the flip side, it’s Directed by James Mangold, who was in charge of both Logan and Ford V Ferrari.

This is another film that could go either way, and it’s a difficult one to gauge.

Our Prediction: $400 million or $800 million worldwide; no happy medium with this one!

---

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One

Budget: $290 million

The latest Tom Cruise blockbuster looks like a real doozy. Dead Reckoning is not just the next bombastic title in the increasingly great Mission: Impossible franchise, it also boasts one of the biggest stunts in cinema history. Tom Cruise’s dedication to his craft, not to mention the way he thanks audiences for checking his films out, make this another sure-fire bet to do well at the cinema.

Each of the last 3 movies in the franchise have made around $700-$800 million but Dead Reckoning, if it gets the balance right for newbies to jump into the franchise too, could surpass that.

Our Prediction: $800-900 million at the worldwide box office.

---

Barbie

Budget: $100 million

Barbie was – and still is – one of the biggest toy brands in the world. Everyone knows about it, almost everyone has played with it, including boys (even if it was to rip their sisters’ Barbie heads apart!)

We will have girls, gays, kids and their parents going for it 101% .. it’s a fun and colourful movie that we haven’t gotten on the big screen in quite a while. The cast is A+ and Margot Robbie seems like the perfect fit for Barbie.

Our Prediction: $700-800 million worldwide.

---

Oppenheimer

Budget: $100 million

Christopher Nolan’s last blockbuster came out in the height of COVID and struggled to make more than $400 million at the box office. With the exception of Dunkirk, heavy-hitters like Inception and Interstellar have made around $800 million worldwide at the box office. With lots of potential, plenty of hype and a relatively free reign over the summer, Oppenheimer could be a nuclear success.

Oppenheimer has all the ingredients to be a box office smash. The stacked cast, the star power of Christopher Nolan and a promising script (not to mention a hyped trailer!) could do great numbers for this one.

Our Prediction: $900 million worldwide.

---

Kraven the Hunter

Budget: $130 million

This film is going to bomb. Hard. Spider-Man fans are not enthused by the changes to the villain’s storyline, while Morbius was an absolute disaster for Sony last year. It was ridiculed to the point of being memed as a must-watch film to “morb out to”. Sony cleared didn’t get the memo and re-released the movie again, only to end up with egg on their face.

Kraven has far less star power than Morbius as a character, while the massive budget of $130 million is not doing this film any favours. It has no star power, unlike Morbius which had the charisma of Matt Smith to help prop this one up.

Get ready for another huge box office bomb. This is unlikely to do well at the cinemas, and nobody has been asking for this. Coupled with superhero fatigue and a complete villain origin re-write, Kraven will be lucky to make back its money.

Our Prediction: $150 million worldwide.

---

Dune: Part Two

Budget: $165 million

Dune was a surprise when it dropped in 2021. Although it didn’t do amazing numbers at the box office, it’s also worth noting that many places across the globe were still in lockdown and cinemas had strict COVID protocols too. Even with all that in mind, the first movie made $402 million worldwide. Given this second part leads on from the first, with restrictions lifted the second part could do better numbers at the box office.

This is a proper sci-fi flick and for anyone who has read the book, there are some amazing moments coming up in the story that aren’t to be missed.

People have an appetite for big action flicks, but audiences also want to be challenged and be thrust into strange, interesting worlds too. We’re thinking Dune will have a good run at the box office.

Our Prediction: $600 million worldwide

---

The Marvels

Budget: Unknown, expect roughly $200 million at least

Delayed three times, renamed from Captain Marvel 2 to The Marvels, and featuring first-time Director Nia DaCosta, this one could be an interesting title to watch at the box office. With the star power of Ms Marvel (who boasts the unenviable record of lowest audience numbers of any Marvel feature) Monica Rambeau (a side character in TV show WandaVision) and Brie Larson, whose infamy proceeds her (you either love or hate her), this film looks like it could be a real test for Marvel.

However, the star power of Park Seo-joon is a definite surprise, while the film’s relatively unchallenged run in November (with only Dune and Hunger Games to compete against), could work in the film’s favour.

Marvel have been long overdue a bomb and The Marvels, with its constant reshoots, delays and rookie writing/Directing team is set up to be just that.

Our Prediction: $400 million worldwide.

---

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Budget: Unknown

Surprisingly, Ballad of Songbirds does not feature the world’s first ever female action hero, Jennifer Lawrence. (source) Instead, this YA prequel takes place during the 10th Hunger Games, where Coriolanus Snow mentors and develops feelings for the female District 12 tribute.

The Hunger Games have sold over 100 million book copies globally, but the real question here is whether that appetite and buzz for The Hunger Games is still there. We saw a flurry of YA dystopian films around the time of Hunger Games’s success and since then, they’ve almost completely dried up. Will this prequel entice people back in the cinema? It seems unlikely.

Our Prediction: $200 million worldwide

---

Wonka

Budget: $125 million

If there’s one thing we can count on with Hollywood, it’s an unnecessary origin story. Wonka is the latest, with the film touted to explore Willy Wonka’s early life and how he met the Oompa-Loompas… before enslaving them and forcing them to work in his chocolate factory.

This doesn’t look like it’s going to do well at the cinema at all, and anyone you ask about this film generally has the same reaction – “why?” Why indeed; this has bomb all over it. With reports of a budget around $125 million, this could be a very expensive lesson for Hollywood.

Our Prediction: $200 million worldwide.

---

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Budget: $205 million

Speaking of box office bombs, not even the shirtless hunk of man-muscle that is Jason Momoa will be enough to stop this one sinking. If The Flash bombs earlier in the year, this one will almost certainly crash and burn.

However, if The Flash does well, this could have a slight knock-on effect to give this one a bit of a bump in the numbers. However, all the events in this film don’t matter given Gunn is about to reboot the universe and that, coupled with superhero fatigue settling in, could turn people away.

Our Prediction: $300 million worldwide.

---

So there we have it! There may be some surprise stand-out hits along the way, we may be wildly off with our estimates on the numbers and there could even be some indies that stand out across the year.

What do you guys think? Do you agree with our predictions? Are there any films you feel will stand out and be box office successes? Or any you feel will be bombs? Let us know in the comments below!